Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
234
result(s)
A Barometer of Canadian Financial System Vulnerabilities
Staff Analytical Note 2017-24
Thibaut Duprey,
Tom Roberts
This note presents a composite indicator of Canadian financial system vulnerabilities—the Vulnerabilities Barometer. It aims to complement the Bank of Canada’s vulnerabilities assessment by adding a quantitative and synthesized perspective to the more granular (distributional) analysis presented in the Financial System Review.
Do Liquidity Proxies Measure Liquidity in Canadian Bond Markets?
Staff Analytical Note 2017-23
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Jeffrey Gao,
Jabir Sandhu,
Kobe Wu
This analytical note evaluates the reliability of proxies for measuring liquidity in Canadian bond markets. We find that price-impact and bid-ask proxies paint a similar picture of evolving liquidity conditions to that obtained from richer measures of liquidity for benchmark Government of Canada bonds.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G14,
G2,
G23,
G3,
G32
The Impacts of Monetary Policy Statements
Staff Analytical Note 2017-22
Bruno Feunou,
Corey Garriott,
James Kyeong,
Raisa Leiderman
In this note, we find that market participants react to an unexpected change in the tone of Canadian monetary policy statements. When the market perceives that the Bank of Canada plans to tighten (or alternatively, loosen) the monetary policy earlier than previously expected, the Canadian dollar appreciates (or depreciates) and long-term Government of Canada bond yields increase (or decrease). The tone of a statement is particularly relevant to the market when the policy rate has been unchanged for some time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Exchange rates,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy communications,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F31,
G,
G1,
G12
Evaluating Real GDP Growth Forecasts in the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
Staff Analytical Note 2017-21
André Binette,
Dmitri Tchebotarev
This paper examines the quality of projections of real GDP growth taken from the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (MPR) since they were first published in 1997. Over the last decade, it has become common practice among the central banking community to discuss forecast performance publicly.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C52,
E,
E3,
E32,
E37,
E5,
E52
Digitalization and Inflation: A Review of the Literature
Staff Analytical Note 2017-20
Karyne B. Charbonneau,
Alexa Evans,
Subrata Sarker,
Lena Suchanek
In the past few years, many have postulated that the possible disinflationary effects of digitalization could explain the subdued inflation in advanced economies. In this note, we review the evidence found in the literature. We look at three main channels.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Market structure and pricing,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
O,
O3,
O33
Digital Transformation in the Service Sector: Insights from Consultations with Firms in Wholesale, Retail and Logistics
Staff Analytical Note 2017-19
Wei Dong,
James Fudurich,
Lena Suchanek
Firms increasingly rely on digital technologies such as e-commerce, cloud computing, big data, digital tracking and digital platforms that are reshaping business operations, business models and market structures. In this context, the Bank of Canada consulted with firms in wholesale, retail and logistics, as well as with related industry associations to yield insights on the adoption of digital technologies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Inflation and prices,
Service sector
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
E,
E3,
E31,
L,
L8,
L81,
L9,
L92,
O,
O3,
O33
Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-18
Jing Yang,
Ben Tomlin,
Olivier Gervais
We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E24,
E27,
E5
Global Factors and Inflation in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2017-17
Dany Brouillette,
Laurence Savoie-Chabot
This note investigates whether the recent weakness in inflation in Canada can be related to global factors not included in the current staff analytical framework (domestic slack, movements in commodity prices and in the exchange rate). A global common factor for inflation among selected advanced economies appears to contain marginal information for Canadian inflation beyond what is found in movements in commodity prices and the exchange rate.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31
Low Inflation in Advanced Economies: Facts and Drivers
Staff Analytical Note 2017-16
Sanjana Bhatnagar,
Anne-Katherine Cormier,
Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit,
Elise Martin,
Vikram Rai,
Renaud St-Cyr,
Subrata Sarker,
Kristina Hess
Since the global financial crisis, core inflation has been persistently below target in most advanced economies. Recently, it has weakened further in several advanced economies despite gradually diminishing slack. This note reviews recent developments in core inflation across advanced economies and identifies distinctive patterns across regions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E3,
E31,
F,
F0