Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
234
result(s)
A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions
Staff Analytical Note 2017-4
Dany Brouillette,
Katerina Gribbin,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
James Ketcheson,
Olena Kostyshyna,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Colin Scarffe
In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E24,
J,
J2,
J21,
J22,
J23
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth
Staff Analytical Note 2017-3
Patrick Alexander,
Michael Francis,
Christopher Hajzler,
Patrick Kirby,
Louis Poirier,
Sri Thanabalasingam,
Kristina Hess
This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E10,
E2,
E20,
O,
O4
What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads
Staff Analytical Note 2017-2
Maxime Leboeuf,
James Pinnington
The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part II
Staff Analytical Note 2017-1
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Guillaume Nolin
This analytical note examines how much of the systematic variation in the Canadian dollar is attributable to its sensitivity to commodity prices. We introduce a new “oil” portfolio that captures systematic variations when the exchange rates of commodity exporters and commodity importers move in opposite directions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31
Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps
Staff Analytical Note 2016-16
Robert Amano,
Thomas J. Carter,
Rhys R. Mendes
What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E5
The Share of Systematic Variations in the Canadian Dollar—Part I
Staff Analytical Note 2016-15
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Guillaume Nolin
In this analytical note we show that the share of the systematic variations in the Canadian dollar has risen significantly in the past two decades. Systematic variations in the exchange rate are shared with other currencies. This parallels the equity market, where variations in the price of a given stock are shared with variations in the prices of other stocks.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F31
A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics
Staff Analytical Note 2016-14
Robert Amano,
Thomas J. Carter,
Rhys R. Mendes
Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Economic models,
Inflation and prices,
Interest rates,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E5
The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye
Staff Analytical Note 2016-13
Robert Fay,
Justin-Damien Guénette,
Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E37,
F,
F0,
F01,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2016-12
Martin Kuncl
During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E6,
E65,
G,
G2,
G28