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2360
result(s)
Weakness in Non-Commodity Exports: Demand versus Supply Factors
Staff Analytical Note 2018-28
José Dorich,
Vadym Lepetyuk,
Jonathan Swarbrick
We use the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM) to conduct demand- and supply-driven simulations, both of which deliver weakness in Canadian non-commodity exports relative to foreign activity in line with recent data.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Monetary policy,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F1,
F10,
F14,
F17
Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective
Staff Analytical Note 2018-27
Taylor Webley
This note examines supply-side trends in Canadian non-energy industries and their implications for export performance. Between 2002 and 2016, capital stocks and total labour input declined in many industries that export non-energy goods. These soft trends in the factors of production have likely contributed to the decline in non-energy exports in about half of the goods industries analyzed in this note.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E23,
E24,
F,
F1,
F19
Decomposing Canada’s Market Shares: An Update
Staff Analytical Note 2018-26
Nicholas Labelle
Building on the shift-share analysis of Barnett and Charbonneau (2015), this note decomposes Canada’s market shares in the United States, Europe and China for imports of non-energy goods into competitiveness, preference shifts and an interaction term. We find that, despite the depreciation of the dollar, Canada continued to lose market share over 2014–17 (around 0.4 percentage points lost per year on average over four years).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F10,
F14,
F4
What Is Restraining Non-Energy Export Growth?
Staff Analytical Note 2018-25
Dany Brouillette,
José Dorich,
Chris D'Souza,
Adrienne Gagnon,
Claudia Godbout
This note summarizes the key findings from Bank of Canada staff analytical work examining the reasons for the recent weakness in Canadian non-energy exports. Canada steadily lost market share in US non-energy imports between 2002 and 2017, mostly reflecting continued and broad-based competitiveness losses.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
International topics,
Monetary policy,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F1,
F10,
F14,
F17
Seeking Safety
Staff Working Paper 2018-41
Toni Ahnert,
Enrico Perotti
The scale of safe assets suggests a structural demand for a safe wealth share beyond transaction and liquidity roles. We study how investors achieve a reference wealth level by combining self-insurance and contingent liquidation of investment. Intermediaries improve upon autarky, insuring investors with poor self-insurance and limiting liquidation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2
The Welfare Cost of Inflation Revisited: The Role of Financial Innovation and Household Heterogeneity
Staff Working Paper 2018-40
Shutao Cao,
Césaire Meh,
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull,
Yaz Terajima
We document that, across households, the money consumption ratio increases with age and decreases with consumption, and that there has been a large increase in the money consumption ratio during the recent era of very low interest rates. We construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model of money holdings for transaction purposes subject to age (older households use more money), cohort (younger generations are exposed to better transaction technology), and time effects (nominal interest rates affect money holdings).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E4,
E41
Sluggish Forecasts
Staff Working Paper 2018-39
Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E37
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-9
Tony Chernis,
Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt
Staff Working Paper 2018-38
Dmitry Matveev
This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
E6,
E62,
E63