Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1323
result(s)
Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models
Staff Working Paper 2009-31
Zhongfang He,
John M. Maheu
A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C15,
C2,
C22,
C5,
C53
Cross-border Mergers and Hollowing-out
Staff Working Paper 2009-30
Oana Secrieru,
Marianne Vigneault
The purpose of our paper is to examine the profitability and social desirability of both domestic and foreign mergers in a location-quantity competition model, where we allow for the possibility of hollowing-out of the target firm. We refer to hollowing-out as the situation where the target firm is shut down following a merger with a domestic or foreign acquirer.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
International topics,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D43,
G,
G3,
G34,
L,
L1,
L13,
L4,
L41
Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?
Staff Working Paper 2009-29
Stephen Murchison
Several authors have presented reduced-form evidence suggesting that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index has declined in Canada since the early 1980s and is currently close to zero.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F31,
F4,
F41
Bond Liquidity Premia
Staff Working Paper 2009-28
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
René Garcia
Recent asset pricing models of limits to arbitrage emphasize the role of funding conditions faced by financial intermediaries. In the US, the repo market is the key funding market. Then, the premium of on-the-run U.S. Treasury bonds should share a common component with risk premia in other markets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E43,
H,
H1,
H12
Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates
Staff Working Paper 2009-27
Robert Amano,
Malik Shukayev
There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy framework
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52
Consumption, Housing Collateral, and the Canadian Business Cycle
Staff Working Paper 2009-26
Ian Christensen,
Paul Corrigan,
Caterina Mendicino,
Shin-Ichi Nishiyama
Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
R,
R2,
R21
Credit Constraints and Consumer Spending
Staff Working Paper 2009-25
Kimberly Beaton
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credit and credit aggregates,
Domestic demand and components,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
E27,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E51,
E58
Resurrecting the Role of Real Money Balance Effects
Staff Working Paper 2009-24
José Dorich
I present a structural econometric analysis supporting the hypothesis that money is still relevant for shaping inflation and output dynamics in the United States. In particular, I find that real money balance effects are quantitatively important, although smaller than they used to be in the early postwar period.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary aggregates,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
E5,
E52
Short Changed? The Market's Reaction to the Short Sale Ban of 2008
Staff Working Paper 2009-23
Louis Gagnon,
Jonathan Witmer
Do short sales restrictions have an impact on security prices? We address this question in the context of a natural experiment surrounding the short sale ban of 2008 using a comprehensive sample of Canadian stocks cross-listed in the U.S.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F30,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G18,
G2,
G20