Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
Receive notification by email whenever new research is added to the website.
2360
result(s)
June 9, 2010
Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?
Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Market structure and pricing
Estimating the Structure of the Payment Network in the LVTS: An Application of Estimating Communities in Network Data
Staff Working Paper 2010-13
James Chapman,
Nellie Zhang
In the Canadian large value payment system an important goal is to understand how liquidity is transferred through the system and hence how efficient the system is in settling payments. Understanding the structure of the underlying network of relationships between participants in the payment system is a crucial step in achieving the goal.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
D,
D8,
D85,
G,
G2,
G20
Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity
Staff Working Paper 2010-12
Fuchun Li,
Pierre St-Amant
This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial stability,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
C,
C0,
C01,
E,
E5,
E50,
G,
G0,
G01
Idiosyncratic Coskewness and Equity Return Anomalies
Staff Working Paper 2010-11
Fousseni Chabi-Yo,
Jun Yang
In this paper, we show that in a model where investors have heterogeneous preferences, the expected return of risky assets depends on the idiosyncratic coskewness beta, which measures the co-movement of the individual stock variance and the market return.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G11,
G12,
G14,
G3,
G33
Statistical Confidence Intervals for the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-7
Daniel de Munnik
While a number of central banks publish their own business conditions indicators that rely on non-random sampling, knowledge about their statistical accuracy has been limited.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Central bank research,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C4,
C46,
C8,
C81
The Fisher BCPI: The Bank of Canada’s New Commodity Price Index
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-6
Ilan Kolet,
Ryan Macdonald
The prices of commodities produced in Canada have important implications for the performance of the Canadian economy and the conduct of monetary policy. The authors explain an important change to the methodology used to construct the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI).
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
E,
E3
Relative Price Movements and Labour Productivity in Canada: A VAR Analysis
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-5
Michael Dolega,
David Dupuis,
Lise Pichette
In recent years, the Canadian economy has been affected by strong movements in relative prices brought about by the surging costs of energy and non-energy commodities, with significant implications for the terms of trade, the exchange rate, and the allocation of resources across Canadian sectors and regions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E23,
E24,
O,
O4,
O47
Prospects for Global Current Account Rebalancing
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-4
Kimberly Beaton,
Carlos De Resende,
René Lalonde,
Stephen Snudden
The authors use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model, a multi-country, multi-sector dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an active banking system (the BoC-GEM-FIN), to study the evolution of global current account balances following the recent global financial crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Balance of payments and components,
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E21,
F,
F0,
F01,
F3,
F32
Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI
Staff Discussion Paper 2010-3
Claudia Godbout,
Jocelyn Jacob
The forecast of world economic growth plays a key role in the conduct of Canadian monetary policy. In this context, the authors study the usefulness of the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) in predicting short-term real GDP growth in the euro area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China, as well as in the world economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E37,
F,
F4,
F47