Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1323
result(s)
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking Choices
Staff Working Paper 2024-4
Jiaqi Li,
Andrew Usher,
Yu Zhu
To what extent does a central bank digital currency (CBDC) compete with bank deposits? To answer this question, we develop and estimate a structural model where each household chooses which financial institution to deposit their digital money with.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5,
E50,
E58
The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission
Staff Working Paper 2024-3
Jing Cynthia Wu,
Yinxi Xie,
Ji Zhang
We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
International financial markets,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52,
F,
F3,
F36,
F4,
F42
The Role of Long-Term Contracting in Business Lending
Staff Working Paper 2024-2
Phoebe Tian
This paper examines inefficiencies arising from a lack of long-term contracting in small business lending in China.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
D86,
G,
G2,
G21,
L,
L1,
L14,
L2,
L26
Extreme Weather and Low-Income Household Finance: Evidence from Payday Loans
Staff Working Paper 2024-1
Shihan Xie,
Victoria Wenxin Xie,
Xu Zhang
This paper explores the impact of extreme weather exposures on the financial outcomes of low-income households. Our findings highlight the heightened financial vulnerability of low-income households to environmental shocks and underscore the need for targeted policies.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Climate change,
Credit and credit aggregates
JEL Code(s):
G,
G5,
Q,
Q5,
Q54
Communicating Inflation Uncertainty and Household Expectations
Staff Working Paper 2023-63
Olena Kostyshyna,
Luba Petersen
We examine the value of direct communication to households about inflation and the uncertainty around inflation statistics. All types of information about inflation are effective at immediately managing inflation expectations, with information about outlooks being more effective and relevant than that about recent inflation and Bank targets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Credibility,
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
Monetary policy and uncertainty,
Monetary policy communications
JEL Code(s):
C,
C9,
C93,
D,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
E59,
E7
Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality in Housing Markets: A Study of 140 US Metropolitan Areas
We find that minority households see greater declines in housing returns and entries into homeownership than White households after a tightening of monetary policy. Our findings emphasize the unintended consequences of monetary policy on racial inequality in the housing market.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Central bank research,
Housing,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E40,
E5,
E52,
R,
R0,
R00
Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function
Staff Working Paper 2023-61
Tony Chernis,
Niko Hauzenberger,
Florian Huber,
Gary Koop,
James Mitchell
This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C3,
C32,
C5,
C53
Third-Country Effects of U.S. Immigration Policy
Staff Working Paper 2023-60
Agostina Brinatti,
Xing Guo
We study how the tightening of US immigration policy affects the Canadian economy and American workers. After the reduction in H-1B visa admissions in 2017, more immigrants came to Canada, and Canadian firms expanded their employment, sales and exports. The close trade link between the United States and Canada dampens the benefit American workers derive from this policy change.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
F,
F1,
F16,
F2,
F22,
J,
J6,
J61
Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models
Staff Working Paper 2023-59
Tao Wang
Perceived income risks reported in a survey of consumer expectations are more heterogeneous and, on average, lower than indirectly calibrated risks based on panel data. They prove to be one explanation for why a large fraction of households hold very little liquid savings and why accumulated wealth is widely unequal across households.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy and uncertainty
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
E,
E2,
E21,
E7,
E71,
G,
G5,
G51