Staff working papers provide a forum for staff to publish work-in-progress research intended for journal publication.
1304
result(s)
The Central Bank Strikes Back! Credibility of Monetary Policy under Fiscal Influence
Staff Working Paper 2022-11
Antoine Camous,
Dmitry Matveev
Central banks in many advanced economies enjoy a high degree of independence, which protects monetary policy decisions from political influence. But how should independent central banks react if pressured by fiscal policy-makers? We examine whether a central bank should design a monetary policy framework that prescribes acting conditionally on how fiscal policy behaves.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Credibility,
Fiscal policy,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E0,
E02,
E5,
E52,
E58,
E6,
E61,
E62
Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning
Staff Working Paper 2022-10
James Chapman,
Ajit Desai
We demonstrate the usefulness of payment systems data and machine learning models for macroeconomic predictions and provide a set of econometric tools to overcome associated challenges.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
C55,
E,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E52
Central Bank Liquidity Facilities and Market Making
Staff Working Paper 2022-9
David Cimon,
Adrian Walton
We create a theoretical model of central bank asset purchases. The model helps explain how, in a crisis, these purchases ease pressures on investment dealers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Economic models,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G20,
L,
L1,
L10
Dynamic Privacy Choices
Staff Working Paper 2022-8
Shota Ichihashi
Consumers often express concerns about lack of privacy, but they still give up a lot of data to digital platforms. This paper builds a dynamic game-theoretic model of data collection and privacy protection, which potentially explains consumers’ behaviour.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
D83
The Impact of Globalization and Digitalization on the Phillips Curve
Staff Working Paper 2022-7
Christian Friedrich,
Peter Selcuk
Globalization is in retreat, yet digitalization is on the rise. How will these trends impact inflation?
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
International topics,
Labour markets,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Trade integration
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E32,
F,
F6
Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies
Staff Working Paper 2022-6
Xing Guo,
Pablo Ottonello,
Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E5,
E52,
F,
F4,
F41,
F44
On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators
Staff Working Paper 2022-5
Shang-Jin Wei,
Yinxi Xie
We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices,
Inflation targets,
International topics,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E31,
E5,
E52,
E58,
F,
F1,
F11,
F12,
F4,
F41,
F6,
F62
The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk
Staff Working Paper 2022-4
Sushant Acharya,
Keshav Dogra,
Sanjay Singh
We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
D,
D5,
D52,
D8,
D84,
E,
E6,
E62,
G,
G1,
G10,
G12
Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach
Staff Working Paper 2022-3
Wenting Song,
Samuel Stern
How much attention do firms pay to macroeconomic news? Through a novel text-based measure, two facts emerge. First, attention is polarized. Most firms either never or always pay attention to economic conditions. Second, it is countercyclical. During recessions, more firms pay attention, and firms pay greater attention to macroeconomic news.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Inflation and prices,
Monetary policy
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D83,
E,
E4,
E44,
E5,
E52