Staff analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic and financial context.
225
result(s)
Behaviour in the Canadian large-value payment system: COVID-19 vs. the global financial crisis
Staff Analytical Note 2021-7
Alexander Chaudhry,
Anneke Kosse,
Karen Sondergard
Unlike the 2008–09 global financial crisis, the onset of the COVID-19 crisis did not raise stress levels in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System. Swift changes to the Bank of Canada’s collateral policy and its large-scale asset purchase programs likely eased liquidity pressures in the system.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial stability,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E42,
E5,
E51,
E58,
E6,
E65
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update
Staff Analytical Note 2021-6
Dany Brouillette,
Guyllaume Faucher,
Martin Kuncl,
Austin McWhirter,
Youngmin Park
We expect potential output growth to be higher than in the October 2020 reassessment. By 2024, growth will be slightly above its average growth from 2010 to 2019. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate continues to lie in the range of 1.75 to 2.75 percent.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Interest rates,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E23,
E24,
E3,
E37,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52
Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021
Staff Analytical Note 2021-5
Thomas J. Carter,
Xin Scott Chen,
Ali Jaffery,
Christopher Hajzler,
Jonathan Lachaine,
Peter Shannon,
Subrata Sarker,
Graeme Westwood,
Beiling Yan
We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Interest rates,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
E4,
E5,
F,
F0,
O,
O4
Update on housing market imbalances and household indebtedness
Staff Analytical Note 2021-4
Mikael Khan,
Olga Bilyk,
Matthew Ackman
Exceptional strength in the housing market during the pandemic is underpinning Canada’s economic recovery. However, two key vulnerabilities—housing market imbalances and elevated household indebtedness—have intensified.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Credit and credit aggregates,
Financial stability,
Housing,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Sectoral balance sheet
JEL Code(s):
D,
D1,
D14,
D8,
D84,
E,
E5,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28,
R,
R2,
R21
What cured the TSX Equity index after COVID-19?
Staff Analytical Note 2021-3
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Jean-Sébastien Fontaine,
Ryan Shotlander
The TSX index rose by 9.5 percent in November 2020, adding large gains to an already sharp V-shaped recovery. The economic outlook improved at that time as well. We ask whether the stock market gains since last autumn are due to improving forecasts of firms’ earnings.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G14
Non-bank financial intermediation in Canada: a pulse check
Staff Analytical Note 2021-2
Rohan Arora,
Guillaume Bédard-Pagé,
Philippe Besnier,
Hayden Ford,
Alan Walsh
The Canadian non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector saw strong growth in 2018 and 2019. In 2020, COVID‑19 caused a financial shock. We provide a preliminary analysis on the impact of COVID‑19 on the sector as well as an update on its growth.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G0,
G01,
G2,
G20,
G23
The Bank of Canada COVID‑19 stringency index: measuring policy response across provinces
Staff Analytical Note 2021-1
Calista Cheung,
Jerome Lyons,
Bethany Madsen,
Sarah Miller,
Saarah Sheikh
We construct an index that systematically measures and tracks the stringency of government policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic across Canadian provinces. Researchers can use this stringency index to analyze how the pandemic is affecting the economy.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Domestic demand and components,
Recent economic and financial developments,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E20,
H,
H7,
I,
I1,
I18,
R,
R1
Concentration in the market of authorized participants of US fixed-income exchange-traded funds
Staff Analytical Note 2020-27
Rohan Arora,
Sébastien Betermier,
Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc,
Adriano Palumbo,
Ryan Shotlander
We show that a small number of authorized participants (APs) actively create and redeem shares of US-listed fixed-income exchange-traded funds (FI-ETFs). In 2019, three APs performed 82 percent of gross creations and redemptions of FI-ETF shares. In contrast, the group of active APs for equity ETFs was much more diverse.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19),
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G2,
G20,
G23
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada
Staff Analytical Note 2020-26
Min Jae Kim,
Jonathan Witmer
Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Topic(s):
Firm dynamics,
Monetary policy,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
D,
D2,
D22,
D9,
D92,
G,
G3,
G31,
G32