Find our research on the financial system by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
452
result(s)
Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis
Staff Working Paper 2013-25
Christiane Baumeister,
Lutz Kilian,
Xiaoqing Zhou
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
G,
G1,
G15,
Q,
Q4,
Q43
The Threat of Counterfeiting in Competitive Search Equilibrium
Staff Working Paper 2013-22
Enchuan Shao
Recent studies in monetary theory show that if buyers can use lotteries to signal the quality of bank notes, counterfeiting does not occur in a pooling equilibrium. In this paper, I investigate the robustness of this non-existence result by considering an alternative trading mechanism.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes
JEL Code(s):
D,
D8,
D82,
D83,
E,
E4,
E42
Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions
Staff Working Paper 2013-20
Nathan Porter,
TengTeng Xu
Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Development economics,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets,
Monetary policy framework,
Monetary policy transmission
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
E,
E4,
E43,
E5,
E52,
E58
Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults
Staff Working Paper 2013-19
M. Hashem Pesaran,
TengTeng Xu
This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Business fluctuations and cycles,
Credit and credit aggregates,
Economic models,
Financial institutions
JEL Code(s):
E,
E3,
E32,
E4,
E44,
G,
G2,
G21
Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply
Staff Working Paper 2013-18
Narayan Bulusu,
Jefferson Duarte,
Carles Vergara-Alert
We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
R,
R3,
R31
Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual?
Staff Working Paper 2013-17
Ron Alquist,
Rahul Mukherjee,
Linda Tesar
Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
International financial markets,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F2,
F21,
G,
G0,
G01,
G3,
G34
Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances
Staff Working Paper 2013-16
Sermin Gungor,
Richard Luger
We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial markets
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C15,
C3,
C33,
G,
G1,
G11,
G12
A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events
Staff Working Paper 2013-13
Ian Christensen,
Fuchun Li
The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C12,
C14,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G17
Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium and Volatility Dynamics
Staff Working Paper 2013-12
Jianjian Jin
This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks (LRR) models to quantify how well they can jointly explain the equity risk premium and the variance risk premium in the U.S. financial markets, and whether they can generate realistic dynamics of risk-neutral and realized volatilities.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Asset pricing,
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G17