Staff discussion papers

Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.

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284 result(s)

Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang
We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant.

Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-19 Chinara Azizova, Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022.

Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy

We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public.

Unmet Payment Needs and a Central Bank Digital Currency

We discuss the payment habits of Canadians both in the current payment environment and in a hypothetical cashless environment.

Cryptoasset Ownership and Use in Canada: An Update for 2022

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-14 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Doina Rusu
We find that Bitcoin ownership declined from 13% in 2021 to 10% in 2022. This drop occurred against a background of steep price declines and an increasingly tight regulatory atmosphere.

What Can Earnings Calls Tell Us About the Output Gap and Inflation in Canada?

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-13 Marc-André Gosselin, Temel Taskin
We construct new indicators of demand and supply for the Canadian economy by using natural language processing techniques to analyze earnings calls of publicly listed firms. Our results indicate that the new indicators could help central banks identify inflationary pressures in real time.

Estimating the Slope of the Demand Function at Auctions for Government of Canada Bonds

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-12 Bo Young Chang
We use bid data from Government of Canada bond auctions between 1999 and 2021 to gauge the yield sensitivity of these bonds to the issuance amount. Our new metric estimates the demand function of the bidders at each auction and offers insights into the relationship between supply and yield of government bonds.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Debt management, Interest rates JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12
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