Staff discussion papers are completed staff research studies on a wide variety of subjects relevant to central bank policy.
284
result(s)
Fundamental Drivers of Existing Home Sales in Canada
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-16
Taylor Webley
Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Economic models,
Housing
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C22,
C23,
E,
E2,
E27,
R,
R2,
R21
Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-15
Corey Garriott,
Sophie Lefebvre,
Guillaume Nolin,
Francisco Rivadeneyra,
Adrian Walton
This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial markets,
Market structure and pricing
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G12,
G2,
G24,
H,
H6,
H63
An Alternative Estimate of Canadian Potential Output: The Multivariate State-Space Framework
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-14
Lise Pichette,
Maria Bernier,
Marie-Noëlle Robitaille
In this paper, we extend the state-space methodology proposed by Blagrave et al. (2015) and decompose Canadian potential output into trend labour productivity and trend labour input. As in Blagrave et al. (2015), we include output growth and inflation expectations from consensus forecasts to help refine our estimates.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Economic models,
Potential output
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
E,
E0,
E5
Assessing Vulnerabilities in Emerging-Market Economies
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-13
Tatjana Dahlhaus,
Alexander Lam
This paper introduces a new tool to monitor economic and financial vulnerabilities in emerging-market economies. We obtain vulnerability indexes for several early warning indicators covering 26 emerging markets from 1990 to 2017 and use them to monitor the evolution of vulnerabilities before, during and after an economic or financial crisis.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
International topics,
Monetary and financial indicators,
Recent economic and financial developments
JEL Code(s):
C,
C8,
C82,
F,
F3,
F34,
G,
G0,
G01,
G1,
G15
Is a Cashless Society Problematic?
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-12
Walter Engert,
Ben Fung,
Scott Hendry
The use of bank notes in Canada for payments has declined consistently for some time, and similar trends are evident in other countries. This has led some observers to predict a cashless society in the future.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Digital currencies and fintech,
Financial services,
Payment clearing and settlement systems
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5
The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-11
Rose Cunningham,
Eden Hatzvi,
Kun Mo
The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Balance of payments and components,
Econometric and statistical methods,
International topics
JEL Code(s):
C,
C2,
C23,
F,
F2,
F21,
F3,
F32,
G,
G1,
G15
Government of Canada Fixed-Income Market Ecology
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-10
Léanne Berger-Soucy,
Corey Garriott,
André Usche
This discussion paper is the third in the Financial Markets Department’s series on the structure of Canadian financial markets. These papers are called “ecologies” because they study the interactions among market participants, infrastructures, regulations and the terms of the traded contract itself.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial services
JEL Code(s):
G,
G1,
G10,
G2,
G20,
H,
H6,
H63
Nowcasting Canadian Economic Activity in an Uncertain Environment
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-9
Tony Chernis,
Rodrigo Sekkel
This paper studies short-term forecasting of Canadian real GDP and its expenditure components using combinations of nowcasts from different models. Starting with a medium-sized data set, we use a suite of common nowcasting tools for quarterly real GDP and its expenditure components.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C53,
E,
E3,
E37,
E5,
E52
Prudential Liquidity Regulation in Banking—A Literature Review
Staff Discussion Paper 2018-8
Adi Mordel
Prudential liquidity requirements are a relatively recent regulatory tool on the international front, introduced as part of the Basel III accord in the form of a liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and a net stable funding ratio (NSFR). I first discuss the rationale for regulating bank liquidity by highlighting the market failures that it addresses while reviewing key theoretical contributions to the literature on the motivation for prudential liquidity regulation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial system regulation and policies
JEL Code(s):
G,
G2,
G21,
G28