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A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics

Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes
Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.

Implementing Cross-Border Interbank Lending in BoC-GEM-FIN

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-19 Malik Shukayev, Argyn Toktamyssov
BIS interbank lending data show that the Great Recession generated large and persistent changes in the international interbank lending positions of various countries. The main objective of this study is to understand the role of changes in international interbank credit flows in transmitting shocks across borders.

Household Risk Assessment Model

Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

Using Speed and Credit Limits to Address the Procyclicality of Initial Margin at Central Counterparties

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-18 Nikil Chande, Nicholas Labelle
This paper proposes a practical approach to address the procyclicality of initial margin at central counterparties (CCPs) that can work even in periods of extreme stress. The approach allows CCPs to limit the speed of margin increases resulting from spikes in market volatility.

On the Value of Virtual Currencies

Staff Working Paper 2016-42 Wilko Bolt, Maarten van Oordt
This paper develops an economic framework to analyze the exchange rate of virtual currency. Three components are important: first, the current use of virtual currency to make payments; second, the decision of forward-looking investors to buy virtual currency (thereby effectively regulating its supply); and third, the elements that jointly drive future consumer adoption and merchant acceptance of virtual currency.

The Impact of Macroprudential Housing Finance Tools in Canada: 2005–10

Staff Working Paper 2016-41 Jason Allen, Timothy Grieder, Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
This paper combines loan-level administrative data with household-level survey data to analyze the impact of recent macroprudential policy changes in Canada using a microsimulation model of mortgage demand of first-time homebuyers.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, D, D1, D14, G, G2, G28

Leaning Within a Flexible Inflation-Targeting Framework: Review of Costs and Benefits

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-17 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Tamon Takamura
This note examines the merits of monetary policy adjustments in response to financial stability concerns, taking into account changes in the state of knowledge since the renewal of the inflation-targeting agreement in 2011. A key financial system vulnerability in Canada is elevated household indebtedness: as more and more households are nearing their debt-capacity limits, the likelihood and severity of a large negative correction in housing markets are also increasing.

Assessment of the Effects of Macroprudential Tightening in Canada

Staff Analytical Note 2016-12 Martin Kuncl
During the period of 2008 to 2012, the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance were tightened on four occasions. In this note, we estimate the effects through a simple econometric exercise using a vector error-correction model (VECM).

Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in Canada: Evidence from Micro- Level Data

Staff Working Paper 2016-40 Dany Brouillette, Olena Kostyshyna, Natalia Kyui
We assess the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in Canada using both firm- and worker-level microdata. In particular, we analyze employer-level administrative data from the Major Wage Settlements (MWS) and household-based survey data from the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID).
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