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2399
result(s)
November 9, 1994
The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction
This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Economic models
November 8, 1994
The demand for currency and the underground economy
The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Monetary aggregates
November 7, 1994
The use of Canadian bank notes
This article delves into the microeconomics of note circulation, reviewing main factors affecting the demand for bank notes over the last 50 years, including new technology such as automated banking machines. It also discusses trends in the average value of notes in circulation and in the demand for notes of different denominations.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Bank notes
The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence
Staff Working Paper 1994-11
Stephen S. Poloz
This paper reviews various competing theories of structural unemployment and considers whether they may be used to explain any of the rise in unemployment experienced by Canada during the most recent economic cycle.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets
Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence : une évaluation empirique
Staff Working Paper 1994-10
Mario Lefebvre
This paper examines whether the hypothesis of economic convergence holds for the Canadian provinces. Using data on real gross domestic product per capita and on factor productivity from 1966 to 1992, the paper shows, using two different methods, that the convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected. This evidence supports the findings of other authors who have studied convergence among Canadian provinces.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments
Symétrie des chocs touchant les régions canadiennes et choix d'un régime de change
Staff Working Paper 1994-9
Alain DeSerres,
René Lalonde
The authors attempt to determine whether the primary advantage of the flexible exchange rate between Canada and the United States—the rapid adjustment of the real exchange rate following an asymmetrical shock—is as evident at the regional as at the national level.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Exchange rates
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 1. The Steady-State Model: SSQPM
Technical Report No. 72
Richard Black,
Douglas Laxton,
David Rose,
Robert Tetlow
This report is the first documenting the Bank of Canada's new model of the Canadian economy, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). QPM is used at the Bank of Canada for both economic projections and policy analysis. Here the authors focus on the model's long-run properties, describing SSQPM, a model of the steady state of QPM […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Economic models
JEL Code(s):
C,
C5,
C51,
E,
E1,
E13
Wealth, Disposable Income and Consumption: Some Evidence for Canada
Technical Report No. 71
Tiff Macklem
The author develops a measure of aggregate private sector wealth in Canada and examines its ability to explain aggregate consumption of non-durables and services. This wealth measure includes financial, physical and human wealth. The author measures human wealth as the expected present value of aggregate labour income, net of government expenditures, based on a discrete […]
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Technical reports
Topic(s):
Domestic demand and components
JEL Code(s):
D,
D9,
D91,
E,
E2,
E21
An Empirical Investigation into Government Spending and Private Sector Behaviour
Staff Working Paper 1994-8
Robert Amano,
Tony S. Wirjanto
We examine whether there is a significant relationship between government and private consumption for Canada. We derive estimating equations between the two types of consumption under both cointegration and no-cointegration assumptions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments