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2358
result(s)
November 18, 2001
A New Measure of Core Inflation
While the Bank of Canada's inflation-control target is specified in terms of the rate of increase in the total consumer price index, the Bank uses a measure of trend or "core" inflation as a short-term guide for its monetary policy actions. When the inflation targets were renewed in May 2001, the Bank announced that it was adopting a new measure of core inflation. This measure excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI and adjusts the remaining components for the effect of changes in indirect taxes. In this article, the author discusses the definition of the new measure of core inflation and describes some of its advantages relative to the previous measure. He notes that the new measure has a firmer statistical basis, has a better correspondence with economic theory, and does a better job of predicting future changes in overall inflation. While the new measure has these advantages, the Bank will continue to monitor a broad range of indicators when assessing the likely future path for inflation.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets
November 17, 2001
Predictability of Average Inflation over Long Time Horizons
Uncertainty about the level of future inflation adversely affects the economy because it distorts the savings and investment decisions of households and businesses. Since these decisions typically involve planning horizons of many years, the adverse effects from inflation uncertainty can be reduced by adopting a policy framework that makes future inflation more predictable over long time horizons. When the inflation-control target was renewed in May 2001, the agreement affirmed that monetary policy will be directed at moving inflation to the 2 per cent midpoint of the target range over a six-to-eight-quarter horizon. The author describes how this policy commitment increases the predictability of average inflation over periods longer than one year. This relationship is illustrated using the Canadian experience from the inflation-targeting period.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation targets
November 16, 2001
Factors Affecting Regional Economic Performance in Canada
This article examines three shocks that affected Canada's economy over the past year from a regional perspective. The downturn in the U.S. economy, high energy prices, and low lumber prices affected Canada's regions to varying degrees. The relative size of the various economic sectors in each region is important in determining the intensity of a region's response to an economic shock. The article presents some stylized facts on the sectoral mix of each region followed by an analysis of the effects of the three shocks on the regional economies. An outlook is presented, which highlights the results of the survey by the Bank's regional offices in the summer of 2001.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Regional economic developments
November 15, 2001
Conference Summary: Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates
This article summarizes the proceedings of an international research conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in November 2000. The conference marked the fiftieth anniversary of Canada's adoption of a flexible exchange rate, and its title recognizes the seminal contribution of Professor Milton Friedman's article "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates." His keynote address to the conference is also summarized in the article. The conference papers re-examine many of the arguments raised by Friedman using recent developments in economic theory and econometric techniques. They investigate the experience of a wide range of industrialized and emerging-market economies. The main findings are that a strong case can be made for flexible exchange rates in economies that are large commodity exporters and that have credible low-inflation monetary policies and relatively well-developed financial systems.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Exchange rate regimes,
Exchange rates
The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds
Staff Working Paper 2001-20
Andy Haldane,
Mark Kruger
Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
International topics
JEL Code(s):
F,
F3,
F34,
F4,
F42
Employment Effects of Restructuring in the Public Sector in North America
Staff Working Paper 2001-19
Paul Fenton,
Irene Ip,
Geoff Wright
This paper examines whether restructuring in the public sector contributed to the slower cyclical recovery in Canada than in the United States during the 1990s. Changes in public sector employment are used to investigate this question.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Labour markets
JEL Code(s):
J,
J4,
J45
Evaluating Factor Models: An Application to Forecasting Inflation in Canada
Staff Working Paper 2001-18
Marc-André Gosselin,
Greg Tkacz
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of factor models for Canadian inflation. This type of model was introduced and examined by Stock and Watson (1999a), who have shown that it is quite promising for forecasting U.S. inflation.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Inflation and prices
JEL Code(s):
C,
C3,
C32,
E,
E3,
E37
Why Do Central Banks Smooth Interest Rates?
Staff Working Paper 2001-17
Gabriel Srour
It is commonly observed that central banks respond gradually to economic shocks, moving the interest rate in small discrete steps in the same direction over an extended period of time. This paper examines the empirical evidence regarding central banks' smoothing of interest rates, paying particular attention to the case of Canada.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E5
Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level
Staff Working Paper 2001-16
Gerald Stuber
This paper surveys recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on the economic implications of uncertainty about the longer-term outlook for inflation. In particular, the linkages between inflation, long-run inflation uncertainty, and aggregate economic activity in industrial economies have become considerably better understood during the past decade.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Topic(s):
Inflation: costs and benefits
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E22,
E3,
E31,
E4,
E44