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November 13, 2014

Spillover Effects of Quantitative Easing on Emerging-Market Economies

While quantitative easing (QE) in the United States likely increased capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs), putting upward pressure on asset prices and exchange rates, diverging fundamentals between advanced economies and EMEs were also important drivers. Evidence suggests that the benefits of QE to EMEs, in higher global demand and increased confidence, appear to outweigh the costs. When advanced economies begin to normalize monetary policy, the best defence for EMEs against any potential instability is likely to be further strengthening of their macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks.
November 13, 2014

Firm Strategy, Competitiveness and Productivity: The Case for Canada

At a time when the Bank is expecting a rotation of demand toward exports and investment, and transformative global trends are placing increasing emphasis on innovation, technology and organizational learning, an understanding of the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms and the factors affecting them has become particularly relevant. This article summarizes findings from a Bank of Canada survey of 151 firms designed to extract signals on elements of firm strategy and organizational capital in order to help inform the macroeconomic outlook.
November 13, 2014

The Use of Financial Derivatives by Canadian Firms

In Canada, about one-third of publicly listed non-financial firms use financial derivatives. The use of derivatives is widespread across all sectors of the economy and increases during periods of greater uncertainty. Non-financial firms that use derivatives are typically larger and more profitable and have lower volatility of earnings than those that do not use derivatives. Overall, the firm characteristics of Canadian hedgers seem to be consistent with those found in other jurisdictions.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G3, G32

Credit Market Frictions and Sudden Stops

Staff Working Paper 2014-49 Yuko Imura
Financial crises in emerging economies in the 1980s and 1990s often entailed abrupt declines in foreign capital inflows, improvements in trade balance, and large declines in output and total factor productivity (TFP).

The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2014-48 Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon
This paper examines the business cycle linkages that propagate industry-specific business cycle shocks throughout the economy in a way that (sometimes) generates aggregated cycles. The transmission of sectoral business cycles is modelled through a multivariate Markov-switching model, which is estimated by Gibbs sampling.

Labour Share Fluctuations in Emerging Markets: The Role of the Cost of Borrowing

Staff Working Paper 2014-47 Serdar Kabaca
This paper contributes to the literature by documenting labour income share fluctuations in emerging-market economies and proposing an explanation for them. Time-series data indicate that emerging markets differ from developed markets in terms of changes in the labour share over the business cycle.

Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

Staff Working Paper 2014-46 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Thomas K. Lee
The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years.

On the Importance of Sales for Aggregate Price Flexibility

Staff Working Paper 2014-45 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Nicolas Vincent
Macroeconomists have traditionally ignored the behavior of temporary price markdowns (“sales”) by retailers. Although sales are common in the micro price data, they are assumed to be unrelated to macroeconomic phenomena and generally filtered out.

Integrating Uncertainty and Monetary Policy-Making: A Practitioner’s Perspective

Staff Discussion Paper 2014-6 Stephen S. Poloz
This paper discusses how central banking is evolving in light of recent experience, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of uncertainty into policy decision-making.

The Role of Card Acceptance in the Transaction Demand for Money

Staff Working Paper 2014-44 Kim Huynh, Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, Helmut Stix
The use of payment cards, either debit or credit, is becoming more and more widespread in developed economies. Nevertheless, the use of cash remains significant.
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