May 14, 1998
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May 14, 1998
Bank of Canada Review - Spring 1998
Cover page
Papal Testone of Innocent XI
Called a testone, this silver coin is about the size of a Canadian two-dollar piece and forms part of the National Currency Collection at the Bank of Canada.
Photography by James Zagon.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review
May 13, 1998
Canada-U.S. long-term interest differentials in the 1990s
Long-term Canada-U.S. interest spreads have changed remarkably during the 1990s. The unusually wide spreads of the first half of the decade have given way to an unprecedented run of negative yield differentials. In this article, the author examines the conceptual aspects of yields on international assets and their application to the Canada-U.S. situation. Prior to 1995, investors were unsure that, over the long run, inflation would meet the targets set by the government and the Bank. Policy credibility was undermined by large budget deficits and political uncertainty. In the second half of the decade, confidence was re-established as the fiscal positions of governments improved, long-run price stability became established, and political concerns about Quebec lessened. As long as these fundamentals hold, long-term rates should remain relatively low, even when short-term rates rise.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Interest rates,
International topics
May 13, 1998
Canada’s inflation-control targets establish a specific medium-term objective for monetary policy.
Monetary Policy Report – May 1998
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Monetary Policy Report
May 12, 1998
Measurement biases in the Canadian CPI: An update
The consumer price index (CPI) is used to measure changes in the price level of consumer goods and services. As an indicator of changes in the cost of living, it is susceptible to various types of measurement biases. This article provides estimates of the size of these biases in the Canadian CPI. It concludes that the rate of increase in the CPI probably overstates the rate of increase in the cost of living by about 0.5 percentage points per year.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Inflation and prices
May 11, 1998
The use of forward rate agreements in Canada
In this article, the authors identify forward rate agreements, or FRAs, as short-term interest rate guarantee instruments negotiated by two parties, one of which is typically a bank. In outlining the main features of FRAs, the authors contrast them with BAX contracts (futures contracts on bankers' acceptances that are negotiated through the Montreal Exchange). The article then describes how market participants use FRAs to cover short-term interest rate risk. The final section deals with the way the Bank of Canada uses information from the FRA market as an indicator of interest rate expectations. Econometric models used to retrieve information from FRA rates, as well as the underlying assumptions, are discussed in an appendix.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Financial markets,
Monetary and financial indicators
January 29, 1998
With inflation remaining low for the sixth consecutive year, the Canadian economy recorded a strong expansion of about 4 per cent through 1997.
Annual Report 1997
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Annual Report
January 14, 1998
Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1997-1998
Cover page
Mafeking siege note
This ten-shilling note measures 6 1/4 by 5 3/4 inches and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.
Photography by James Zagon.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review
December 14, 1997
Recent economic and financial developments
The Canadian economy expanded at an average rate of over 4 per cent through the second half of 1996 and the first three quarters of 1997. The expansion was supported by accommodative monetary conditions, substantial employment gains, low inflation, an improved fiscal postion, and strong U.S. demand. These factors will continue to underpin a scenario of sustained growth in output and employment in the period ahead. With the situation in Asia still evolving, it is difficult to be precise about the size of its overall impact on Canada. At the same time, there have been some positive developments including stronger-than-anticipated economic performance in the United States, Mexico, and Europe and declining longer-term interest rates in most industrial countries. The core rate of inflation slipped slightly below the 1 to 3 per cent target range in the closing months of 1997. With the unwinding of some of the special factors that contributed to the decline, trend inflation is expected to move back inside the range in coming months.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Recent economic and financial developments
December 13, 1997
The overnight market in Canada
The overnight market is an active forum where participants with a temporary surplus or shortage of funds can lend or borrow until the next business day. The level of interest rates in the overnight market has always been closely linked to the Bank of Canada's monetary policy operations. In this article, the authors describe the evolution of the market from its roots in the 1950s, the development of the Bank's monetary policy operations in the market, and how the market operates today. They also examine the outlook for the overnight market, particularly the implications of the new Large-Value Transfer System.
Content Type(s):
Publications,
Bank of Canada Review articles
Topic(s):
Monetary policy implementation