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Quarterly Financial Report - First Quarter 2022 - For the period ended March 31, 2022

The Annual Report outlines the Bank’s activities and achievements in 2021. It includes the financial statements and a message from Governor Tiff Macklem.

Canadian economic activity remains strong, and employment is robust. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 4¼% in 2022, easing to 3¼% in 2023.

In the first-quarter 2022 Business Outlook Survey, reports of labour-related capacity constraints and supply chain challenges remain widespread. Given these pressures and robust demand, businesses anticipate stronger price growth—and they expect the Russian invasion of Ukraine to add more cost pressures. As public health restrictions ease, firms that were hit hard during the pandemic anticipate their sales will pick up.

This survey took place in mid-February 2022 before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in March and provide some insight into how consumers perceive the effects of the conflict. Short-term inflation expectations have reached record-high levels because of supply disruptions and the COVID 19 pandemic. Consumers think the Russian invasion of Ukraine will make high inflation worse. Despite greater concerns about inflation today, longer-term expectations have remained stable and are below pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and that survey respondents believe the current rise in inflation will not last. Although workers anticipate significant price increases in the near term, they believe their wages will increase only modestly. This is a source of dissatisfaction for them. Despite expecting higher interest rates, consumers continue to anticipate strong spending growth on a broad range of goods and services.

The Canadian economy entered 2022 in a strong position. The Bank is forecasting growth of 4% in 2022 and about 3½ % in 2023.

In the fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey, reports of supply chain bottlenecks and labour shortages remain elevated. Firms cited robust growth in demand, although those offering hard-to-distance services still had sales below pre-pandemic levels, even before the Omicron variant began spreading broadly. These factors are resulting in upward pressures on prices over the next year.

This survey took place in November 2021 before the Omicron variant of COVID-19 began spreading broadly in Canada. In December, the number of COVID-19 cases rose dramatically and governments began to reimpose containment measures. Many Canadians think inflation will be high over the next two years because of supply disruptions caused by the pandemic. They are more concerned about inflation now than they were before the pandemic and believe it has become more difficult to control. However, near-term inflation expectations are not feeding into expectations for wage growth or longer-term inflation. Showing confidence in the labour market, workers are more likely than ever to want to change jobs.

Ensuring the stability and efficiency of the financial system is a key part of our work at the Bank of Canada. This includes analyzing structural changes that affect the economy—like climate change. These changes could increase vulnerabilities to the financial system.

This article presents the key results from the autumn 2021 Bank of Canada Financial System Survey, conducted between September 7 and September 24, 2021. The survey included a special section on the implications of low interest rates on strategies and risks.