October 19, 2016
Monetary policy and uncertainty
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The Case of Serial Disappointment
Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. -
June 15, 2016
The Canadian Economy: A Progress Report
Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the outlook for Canada’s economy and the adjustment to lower resource prices. -
April 5, 2016
China’s Great Transition: What It Means for Canada
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the risks and opportunities for Canada of China’s economic transition. -
The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes
This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying episodes of strong capital flows based on a regime-switching model. In comparison with the existing literature, a key advantage of our methodology is to estimate capital flow regimes without the need for context- and sample-specific assumptions. -
What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.