Monetary policy transmission

• Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-13 Vivian Chu, Yang Zhang

  A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E5, E52, E58

• House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data

  Staff Working Paper 2022-39 Denis Gorea, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Marianna Kudlyak

  Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, R, R2, R21, R3, R31

• International Transmission of Quantitative Easing Policies: Evidence from Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2022-30 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  This paper examines the cross-border spillovers from major economies’ quantitative easing (QE) policies to their trading partners. We concentrate on spillovers from the US to Canada during the zero lower bound period when QE policies were actively used.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44

• Unregulated Lending, Mortgage Regulations and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2022-28 Ugochi Emenogu, Brian Peterson

  This paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential policies when regulations are uneven across mortgage lender types. We look at credit tightening that results from macroprudential regulations and examine how much of it is counteracted by credit shifting to unregulated lenders. We also study the impact of monetary policy tightening when some lenders are unregulated.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E50, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G23, G28

• Exports and the Exchange Rate: A General Equilibrium Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2022-18 Patrick Alexander, Abeer Reza

  How do a country’s exports change when its currency depreciates? Does it matter which forces drive the exchange rate deprecation in the first place? We find that this relationship varies greatly depending on what drives exchange rate movements, and we conclude that the direct relationship between the exchange rate and exports is weak for Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, International topics, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, F33, F4, F41

• Real Exchange Rate Decompositions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-6 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn

  We break down the exchange rate based on an explicit link between fixed income and currency markets. We isolate a foreign exchange risk premium and show it is the main driver of the exchange rate between the Canadian and US dollars, especially on monetary policy and macroeconomic news announcement days.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• Household Heterogeneity and the Performance of Monetary Policy Frameworks

  Staff Working Paper 2022-12 Edouard Djeutem, Mario He, Abeer Reza, Yang Zhang

  Consumption inequality and a low interest rate environment are two important trends in today’s economy. But the implications they may have—and how those implications interact—within different monetary policy frameworks are not well understood. We study the ranking of alternative frameworks that take these trends into account.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D5, D52, E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58
• March 3, 2022

  Economic progress report: Controlling inflation

  Remarks (delivered virtually) Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank’s latest interest rate announcement and what’s driving inflation in Canada. He also discusses how the Bank will manage the next step in the Bank’s balance sheet operations – quantitative tightening.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet
• March 3, 2022

  Getting inflation back to target

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem CFA Society Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem talks about the Bank of Canada’s decision yesterday to raise its policy interest rate. He explains that after two years of extraordinary stimulus, we are now on a path of rising interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet

• A Horse Race of Alternative Monetary Policy Regimes Under Bounded Rationality

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-4 Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger, Yang Zhang

  We introduce bounded rationality in a canonical New Keynesian model calibrated to match Canadian macroeconomic data since Canada’s adoption of inflation targeting. We use the model to quantitatively assess the macroeconomic impact of alternative monetary policy regimes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58