One of the central lessons learned from the Great Depression was that adjusting government spending each year to balance the budget increases the volatility of output.
We develop an equilibrium model of the monetary policy transmission mechanism that highlights information frictions in the market for money and search frictions in the market for labour.
This paper studies the persistent effects of monetary shocks on output. Previous empirical literature documents this persistence, but standard general-equilibrium models with sticky prices fail to generate output responses beyond the duration of nominal contracts.
This paper examines the predictive power of credit spreads from the corporate bond market. The high-yield bond spread and investment-grade spread can explain 68 per cent and 42 per cent of output variations one year ahead, while the term spread based on government debts can explain only 12 per cent of them.