Potential output

• December 14, 2017

  Three Things Keeping Me Awake at Night

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses his long-term economic preoccupations now that the Canadian economy has nearly completed its journey home.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial stability, Housing, Monetary policy, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Potential output
• November 16, 2017

  An Update on the Neutral Rate of Interest

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 José Dorich, Abeer Reza, Subrata Sarker

  The neutral rate serves as a benchmark for measuring monetary stimulus and provides a medium- to long-run anchor for the real policy rate. Global neutral rate estimates have been falling over the past few decades. Factors such as population aging, high corporate savings, and low trend productivity growth are likely to continue supporting a low global neutral rate. These global factors as well as domestic factors are exerting downward pres-sure on the Canadian real neutral rate, which is estimated to be between 0.5 to 1.5 per cent. This low neutral rate has important implications for monetary policy and financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F0, F01, F4, F43, O, O4
• November 1, 2017

  Opening Statement before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce Ottawa, Ontario

  Good afternoon, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are pleased to be back before you today to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. When we were last here in April, we were celebrating the fact that we had upgraded our economic forecast following a […]

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments, Sectoral balance sheet

• Alternative Scenario to the October 2017 MPR Base-Case Projection: Higher Potential Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-18 Jing Yang, Ben Tomlin, Olivier Gervais

  We construct an alternative scenario in which trend labour input and business investment are stronger than that expected in the Bank of Canada’s base-case projection in the October 2017 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E24, E27, E5
• October 3, 2017

  Seeking Gazelles in Polar Bear Country

  Remarks Sylvain Leduc Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce Sherbrooke, Quebec

  Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the decline in firm creation and productivity in the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Market structure and pricing, Potential output, Productivity
• April 18, 2017

  Blame It on the Machines?

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Toronto Region Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses how automation could affect productivity and the Bank’s monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Market structure and pricing, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Productivity
• April 12, 2017

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments

• April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin

  This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess

  This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4
• January 18, 2017

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments