Monetary policy framework

• November 11, 2009

  Declining Inflation Persistence in Canada: Causes and Consequences

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2009-2010 Rhys R. Mendes, Stephen Murchison

  The persistence of both core and total consumer price index inflation in Canada has declined significantly since the 1980s. In addition to providing up-to-date estimates of inflation persistence, this article examines possible reasons for the decline suggested in the literature. The role played by monetary policy, through its effect on price- and wage-setting behaviour, is distinguished from possible changes to the structure of the economy that are independent of monetary policy. The authors also discuss the implications for monetary policy of low structural persistence in inflation, including the choice of an inflation-targeting regime versus a price-level-targeting regime.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework

• Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2009-27 Robert Amano, Malik Shukayev

  There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Adopting Price-Level Targeting under Imperfect Credibility in ToTEM

  Staff Working Paper 2009-17 Gino Cateau, Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Using the Bank of Canada's main projection and policy-analysis model, ToTEM, this paper measures the welfare gains of switching from inflation targeting to price-level targeting under imperfect credibility. Following the policy change, private agents assign a probability to the event that the policy-maker will revert to inflation-targeting next period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52

• Real Effects of Price Stability with Endogenous Nominal Indexation

  Staff Working Paper 2009-16 Césaire Meh, Vincenzo Quadrini, Yaz Terajima

  We study a model with repeated moral hazard where financial contracts are not fully indexed to inflation because nominal prices are observed with delay as in Jovanovic & Ueda (1997).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E52
• April 9, 2009

  Next Steps for Canadian Monetary Policy

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Donald Coletti

  In 2006, the Bank initiated a research program exploring two alternatives to the current inflation-targeting framework: (i) lowering the inflation target and (ii) shifting to a price-level target. This article discusses progress to date, places the Bank's findings in the context of a broader literature, and identifies avenues for future research.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
• April 8, 2009

  Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Steve Ambler

  This article reviews arguments in the literature for and against price-level targeting, focusing on its costs and benefits compared with inflation targeting. Benefits of price-level targeting include the effect on forward-looking inflation expectations; the ability to substitute for commitment by a central bank to its future policies; lessening forecast errors; better economic performance in response to real shocks because of lower wage indexation; and a reduction in the problem of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework
• April 7, 2009

  Price-Level Uncertainty, Price-Level Targeting, and Nominal Debt Contracts

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Allan Crawford, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima

  Many central banks around the world have embraced inflation targeting as a monetary policy framework. Interest is growing, however, in price-level targeting as an alternative. The choice of frameworks has important consequences for financial contracts, most of which are not fully indexed to the price level. Changes in the price level therefore lead to changes in the real value of contracts.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework

• Optimal Policy under Commitment and Price Level Stationarity

  Staff Working Paper 2009-8 Gino Cateau

  This paper proposes a simple analytical method to determine the stationarity of an unnormalized variable from the solution to a normalized model i.e. a model whose variables must be expressed in relative terms or must be differenced for a solution to exist.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes

  Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F41, F5, F55, N, N7, N72

• Monetary Policy Lag, Zero Lower Bound, and Inflation Targeting

  Staff Working Paper 2009-2 Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

  Although the concept of monetary policy lag has historical roots deep in the monetary economics literature, relatively little attention has been paid to the idea. In this paper, we build on Svensson's (1997) inflation targeting framework by explicitly taking into account the lagged effect of monetary policy and characterize the optimal monetary policy reaction function both in the absence and in the presence of the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E5, E52, E58