Monetary policy

• Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2022-50 Martin Harding, Jesper Lindé, Mathias Trabandt

  We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. Our model can generate more sizable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model when inflation is high.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E31, E32, E37, E4, E44, E5, E52
• December 12, 2022

  Putting the resolute in resolutions: Looking ahead to lower inflation

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia

  Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from 2022 and explains what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments
• December 12, 2022

  Reflections on 2022

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the important lessons from events in 2022 and what the Bank is doing to restore price stability for Canadians.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments

• Monetary Policy, Credit Constraints and SME Employment

  Staff Working Paper 2022-49 Julien Champagne, Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant

  We revisit an old question: how do financial constraints affect the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy? To answer this question, we propose a simple empirical strategy that combines firm-level employment and balance sheet data, identified monetary policy shocks and survey data on financing activities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G3
• November 10, 2022

  Getting back to stable prices and a balanced jobs market

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses the relationship between inflation and employment and how the Bank of Canada is working to cool an overheated economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments
• November 10, 2022

  Restoring labour market balance and price stability

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Public Policy Forum Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Tiff Macklem outlines the link between high inflation and tight labour markets. He explains how the Bank is working to rebalance the labour market and discusses how structural changes may influence the supply of workers in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Potential output, Price stability, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments

• Stagflation and Topsy-Turvy Capital Flows

  Staff Working Paper 2022-46 Julien Bengui, Louphou Coulibaly

  Unregulated capital flows are likely excessive during a stagflation episode, owing to a macroeconomic externality operating through the economy’s supply side. Inflows raise domestic wages and cause unwelcome upward pressure on firm costs, yet market forces likely generate such inflows. Optimal capital flow management instead requires net outflows.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D6, D62, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F32, F38, F4, F41

• Core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-17 Mikael Khan, Elyse Sullivan

  We assess the usefulness of various measures of core inflation over the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that Cpi-trim and CPI-median provided the best signal of underlying inflation. The favourable performance of these measures stems from their lack of reliance on historical experience, an especially valuable feature in unprecedented times.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, E, E3, E31
• October 6, 2022

  What’s happening to inflation and why it matters

  Remarks Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how inflation has evolved in recent months and explains what the Bank is watching as it takes action to return inflation to target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
• October 6, 2022

  Restoring price stability for all Canadians

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector