Interest rates

• What Fed Funds Futures Tell Us About Monetary Policy Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2016-61 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine

  The uncertainty around future changes to the Federal Reserve target rate varies over time. In our results, the main driver of uncertainty is a “path” factor signaling information about future policy actions, which is filtered from federal funds futures data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G12, G13

• Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes

  What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5

• Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Is There an Allocation Puzzle?

  Staff Working Paper 2016-53 Josef Schroth

  Foreign direct investment inflows are positively related to growth across developing countries—but so are savings in excess of investment. I develop an explanation for this well-established puzzle by focusing on the limited availability of consumer credit in developing countries together with general equilibrium effects.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Foreign reserves management, Interest rates, International financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E1, E13, E2, E21, F, F4, F43
• October 19, 2016

  Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement

  Opening statement Stephen S. Poloz, Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses key issues involved in the Governing Council’s deliberations about the policy rate decision and the MPR.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Topic(s): Housing, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments

• A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes

  Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
• September 20, 2016

  Living with Lower for Longer

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Association des économistes québécois, the Cercle finance du Québec and CFA Québec Québec, Québec

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz talks about the adjustments that savers and companies need to make in response to low interest rates, and economic policies that can help.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy, Potential output, Trade integration
• September 14, 2016

  (S)low for Long and Financial Stability

  Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom

  Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Interest rates, International topics, Monetary policy implementation, Potential output

• Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi

  Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• Relationships in the Interbank Market

  Staff Working Paper 2016-33 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet

  In the interbank market, banks will sometimes trade below the central bank's deposit rate. We explain this anomaly using a theory based on market frictions and relationship lending.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5

• Global Macro Risks in Currency Excess Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2016-32 Kimberly Berg, Nelson C. Mark

  We study a cross section of carry-trade-generated currency excess returns in terms of their exposure to global fundamental macroeconomic risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12