Financial markets
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Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data
Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. -
Supporting the Transition to Net-Zero Emissions: The Evolving Role of Central Banks
While climate change was largely tackled by government policies in the past, central banks are increasingly grappling with the risks climate change poses. They are evaluating their operational policies to reflect these risks and the transition to a net-zero economy. This paper explores the trade-offs and considerations central banks face. -
Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs
Central banks’ actions to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises may come with costs and side effects. We provide a literature review of these costs and discuss measures that may mitigate the negative impacts of crisis actions. -
November 9, 2023
Getting used to higher interest rates
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about why interest rates could settle at a higher level than Canadians are used to and why preparing early for that possible outcome is important. -
November 9, 2023
Financial stability in a world of higher interest rates
Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about financial stability in an era of higher interest rates. -
Borrow Now, Pay Even Later: A Quantitative Analysis of Student Debt Payment Plans
We investigate alternative student debt contracts that defer payments and ease the burden of student loans on US households by preserving disposable income early in borrowers’ lives. Our model shows substantial welfare gains from these contracts relative to existing plans and gains similar to the Biden administration's proposals but with a significantly lower cost. -
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System
This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. -
Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning
We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant. -
Tattle-tails: Gauging downside risks using option prices
Options markets offer unique insights into the changing risks different assets face, which helps us better understand the broader risks to the Canadian economy. We show how option prices help reveal that investors did not anticipate large downside risks to either major Canadian banks or economic growth during the March 2023 financial sector system stress, a period when policy-makers and investors were unsure of what the future held for Canada’s economy.