Economic models

• Can a Matching Model Explain the Long-Run Increase in Canada's Unemployment Rate?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-19 Andreas Hornstein, Mingwei Yuan

  The authors construct a simple general equilibrium model of unemployment and calibrate it to the Canadian economy. Job creation and destruction are endogenous. In this model, they consider several potential factors that could contribute to the long-run increase in the Canadian unempoloyment rate: a more generous unemployment insurance system, higher layoff costs, higher discretionary taxes, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E6, J, J4

• Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 1998-16 Denise Côté, Marianne Johnson

  This study examines the link between consumer expenditures and the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Attitudes, an index highly regarded for some time as a useful leading indicator of consumer expenditures. However, the theory that identifies why it may be useful in an analysis of consumption is less well established. To explore this question, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2

• Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two

  Staff Working Paper 1998-6 Walter Engert, Scott Hendry

  A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by Hendry […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C5, E, E3, E4, E5