Central bank research

• Comparing Forward Guidance and Neo-Fisherianism as Strategies for Escaping Liquidity Traps

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-16 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes

  What path should policy-makers select for the nominal rate when faced with a liquidity trap during which the effective lower bound binds?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
• November 28, 2016

  From Hewers of Wood to Hewers of Code: Canada’s Expanding Service Economy

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how growth in Canada’s service sector is leading to high-paying jobs and helping complete the economic recovery.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Firm dynamics, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector
• November 1, 2016

  25 Years of Inflation Targets: Certainty for Uncertain Times

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Business Council of British Columbia Vancouver, British Columbia

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses the renewal of Canada’s inflation-targeting agreement and how it continues to help the economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy framework
• September 26, 2016

  Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

  Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Western Washington University Bellingham, Washington

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses global trade integration and the implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission, Trade integration

• A Primer on Neo-Fisherian Economics

  Staff Analytical Note 2016-14 Robert Amano, Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes

  Conventional models imply that central banks aiming to raise inflation should lower nominal rates and thus stimulate aggregate demand. However, several economists have recently challenged this conventional wisdom in favour of an alternative “neo-Fisherian’’ view under which higher nominal rates might in fact lead to higher inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5

• Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi

  Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• The Real-Time Properties of the Bank of Canada’s Staff Output Gap Estimates

  Staff Working Paper 2016-28 Julien Champagne, Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We study the revision properties of the Bank of Canada’s staff output gap estimates since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest that the average staff output gap revision has decreased significantly over the past 15 years, in line with recent evidence for the U.S.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32
• June 4, 2016

  Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Financial Stability: The Medium Term Is Still the Message

  Lecture Stephen S. Poloz Canadian Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario

  Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how the mix of monetary and fiscal policies in an economy has important implications for debt levels and financial stability over the medium term.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Lectures Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework
• May 6, 2016

  Stress Prevention: Central Banks and Financial Stability

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Joint Workshop: Bank of Canada, International Monetary Fund, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and Peterson Institute for International Economics Ottawa, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses central banks and the maintenance of financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy framework, Sectoral balance sheet

• Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries

  Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey

  This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15