Business fluctuations and cycles

• September 21, 2015

  Riding the Commodity Cycle: Resources and the Canadian Economy

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Calgary Economic Development Calgary, Alberta

  Governor Poloz speaks about cycles in commodity prices and how Canada has used its endowment of natural resources to build a prosperous economy.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration

• The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model

  Staff Working Paper 2015-35 Julien Champagne

  This paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J33, J4, J41

• The Endogenous Relative Price of Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2015-30 Joel Wagner

  This paper takes a full-information model-based approach to evaluate the link between investment-specific technology and the inverse of the relative price of investment. The two-sector model presented includes monopolistic competition where firms can vary the markup charged on their product depending on the number of firms competing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, L, L1, L11, L16

• Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

  Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37

• Productive Misallocation and International Transmission of Credit Shocks

  Staff Working Paper 2015-19 Yuko Imura, Julia Thomas

  We develop an asymmetric, two-country equilibrium business cycle model to study the role of international trade in transmitting and propagating the real effects of global financial shocks. Our model predicts that a recession in a large economy considerably alters a recession in its smaller trade partner, with distinct investment dynamics driving the transmission.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44, F, F4, F41, F44
• May 19, 2015

  The Way Home: Reading the Economic Signs

  Remarks Stephen S. Poloz Greater Charlottetown Area Chamber of Commerce Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island

  Governor Poloz discusses some key indicators the Bank is watching as the Canadian economy heads toward sustainable balanced growth.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments

• Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2015-9 Martin Kuncl

  This paper studies the efficiency of financial intermediation through securitization in a model with heterogeneous investment projects and asymmetric information about the quality of securitized assets. I show that when retaining part of the risk, the issuer of securitized assets may credibly signal its quality.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G20
• January 13, 2015

  Drilling Down - Understanding Oil Prices and Their Economic Impact

  Remarks Timothy Lane Madison International Trade Association (MITA) Madison, Wisconsin

  Deputy Governor Timothy Lane discusses the causes of the recent drop in oil prices and its effects on the global and Canadian economies.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration