Maxime Leboeuf - Latest

• June 7, 2018

  The Bank of Canada’s Financial System Survey

  Financial System Review - June 2018 Guillaume Bédard-Pagé, Ian Christensen, Scott Kinnear, Maxime Leboeuf

  This report presents the details of a new semi-annual survey that will improve the Bank of Canada’s surveillance across the financial system and deepen efforts to engage with financial system participants. The survey collects expert opinions on the risks to and resilience of the Canadian financial system as well as on emerging trends and financial innovations. The report presents an overview of the survey and provides high-level results from the spring 2018 survey.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, G, G1, G11, G18, G2, G28, G3, G32

• Is the Excess Bond Premium a Leading Indicator of Canadian Economic Activity?

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-4 Maxime Leboeuf, Daniel Hyun

  This note investigates whether Canadian corporate spreads and the excess bond premium (EBP) lead Canadian economic activity. Indeed, we find that corporate spreads precede changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada over the subsequent year. The EBP accounts for most of this property. Further, an unanticipated increase in the Canadian EBP forecasts a deterioration of domestic macroeconomic conditions: a 10-basis-point increase results in a fall in both GDP and consumer price index (CPI) of 0.4 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, over three years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G1, G12