Gregory Bauer - Latest

• August 16, 2012

  Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks

  Staff Working Paper 2012-5 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15