Greg Tkacz - Latest

• Electronic Transactions as High-Frequency Indicators of Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2007-58 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E6, E66

• Gold Prices and Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2007-35 Greg Tkacz

  Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E4, E44

• How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

  Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53