Business fluctuations and cycles

• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails

  Staff Working Paper 2018-50 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Tatevik Sekhposyan

  We document a strong asymmetry in the evolution of federal funds rate expectations and map this observed asymmetry into measures of monetary policy uncertainty. We show that periods of monetary policy tightening and easing are distinctly related to downside (policy rate is higher than expected) and upside (policy rate is lower than expected) uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52

• Price Selection

  Staff Working Paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov

  We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51