Posts

• June 30, 2015

  Research Update - June 2015

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

  Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37

• Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2015-23 Juncal Cunado, Soojin Jo, Fernando Perez de Gracia

  This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of oil shocks in four of the largest oil-consuming Asian economies, using a structural vector autoregressive model. We identify three different types of oil shocks via sign restrictions: an oil supply shock, an oil demand shock driven by global economic activity and an oil-specific demand shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, O, O5, O53, Q, Q4, Q43
• June 26, 2015

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 26 June 2015

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics

• Sheltered Income: Estimating Income Under-Reporting in Canada, 1998 and 2004

  Staff Working Paper 2015-22 Geoffrey R. Dunbar, Chunling Fu

  We use data from the Survey of Financial Security and the Survey of Household Spending to estimate the incidence and extent of income under-reporting in Canada in 1998 and 2004. We estimate that the proportion of households under-reporting income is roughly 35 to 50 per cent in both years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): H, H2, H26, I, I3, I32, K, K4, K42
• June 25, 2015

  Banking and Financial Statistics - June 2015

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Banking and Financial Statistics
• June 25, 2015

  Building Trust, Not Walls: The Case for Cross-Border Financial Integration

  Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Windsor–Essex Regional Chamber of Commerce Windsor, Ontario

  Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the need to address cross-border obstacles to greater financial integration.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics

• Large-Scale Asset Purchases: Impact on Commodity Prices and International Spillover Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2015-21 Sharon Kozicki, Lena Suchanek, Eric Santor

  Prices of commodities, including metals, energy and agricultural products, rose markedly over the 2009–2010 period. Some observers have attributed a significant part of this increase in commodity prices to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs.

  Content Type(s): Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14, Q, Q0, Q00

• Changes in Payment Timing in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Working Paper 2015-20 Nellie Zhang

  This paper uncovers trends in payment timing in Canada’s Large Value Transfer System (LVTS) from 2003 to 2011. Descriptive analysis shows that LVTS payment activity has not been peaking in the late afternoon since 2008, and the improvement was most significant in 2009.

  Content Type(s): Staff working papers Topic(s): Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, G, G2, G20
• June 19, 2015

  Weekly Financial Statistics - 19 June 2015

  Content Type(s): Publications, Historical: Weekly Financial Statistics