Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the issues that led Governing Council to hold the policy interest rate at 1.25 per cent in their May 30 decision.
As economic slack continues to be absorbed and the labour market tightens, wage growth and inflation could increase faster than expected, which would suggest convexity in their Phillips curves. This note investigates whether there is convexity in the Phillips curves for Canadian wage growth and inflation by testing different empirical approaches over the post-inflation-targeting period.