Posts

• April 30, 2024

  CARR reiterates that market participants with CDOR-based loans, derivatives or securities must prepare for CDOR’s cessation post June 28, 2024

  Refinitiv Benchmark Services (UK) Limited (RBSL), the administrator of CDOR, today reaffirmed that all three tenors of CDOR will cease to be published after June 28, 2024.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group

• Potential output in Canada: 2024 assessment

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-11 Tessa Devakos, Christopher Hajzler, Stephanie Houle, Craig Johnston, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Ron Rautu, Temel Taskin

  We expect that potential output in Canada will grow by 2.3% and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024, respectively, and average slightly below 1.7% by 2027 as population growth moderates. Relative to the April 2023 assessment, growth is revised up in 2024, with a larger contribution from trend labour input due to higher-than-anticipated population growth. We revise down our estimates of growth over 2025–26.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5

• Assessing global potential output growth: April 2024

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-10 Amor Aniss Benmoussa, Raheeb Dastagir, Eshini Ekanayake, Justin-Damien Guénette, Helen Lao, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Aidan Spencer, Lin Xiang

  This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates serve as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2024 Monetary Policy Report.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, O, O4

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi

  We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6
• April 30, 2024

  Bank of Canada Media Interview – Radio-Canada

  Nicolas Vincent, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, gave an interview to Radio-Canada première’s Même fréquence.

  Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
• April 29, 2024

  CARR Meeting (April 29, 2024)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group

• The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62
• April 25, 2024

  CFIF announces the establishment of the Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group

  The Canadian Fixed-Income Forum today announced the establishment of the Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Collateral Infrastructure and Market Practices Advisory Group
• April 25, 2024

  Bank of Canada plans to re-introduce its securities lending program

  The Bank of Canada is planning to restart later this year its securities lending program (SLP) which is designed to support the liquidity of Government of Canada (GoC) securities markets.

  Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Securities Lending Program, Securities Repo Operations