Interest rates

• Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-9 Frida Adjalala, Felipe Alves, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Dmitry Matveev, Laure Simon

  We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.0% to 3.0% in 2023. The assessed range is back to the level it was at in April 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58, F, F4, F41

• The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan

  The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62