Econometric and statistical methods

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi

  We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6

• U.S. Macroeconomic News and Low-Frequency Changes in Small Open Economies’ Bond Yields

  Staff Working Paper 2024-12 Bingxin Ann Xing, Bruno Feunou, Morvan Nongni-Donfack, Rodrigo Sekkel

  Using two complementary approaches, we investigate the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden and the United Kingdom. We find that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important to explain changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real and break-even inflation rates of small open economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, E47, G, G1, G14