Business fluctuations and cycles

• Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies

  Staff Working Paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner

  Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille

  Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37