Central bank research

• Can the Business Outlook Survey Help Improve Estimates of the Canadian Output Gap?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2020-14 Calista Cheung, Luke Frymire, Lise Pichette

  We investigate whether questions in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey can provide useful signals for the output gap.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E3

• Safe Payments

  Staff Working Paper 2020-53 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini, Janet Hua Jiang, Yu Zhu

  In a cashless economy, would the private sector invest in the optimal level of safety in a deposit-based payment system? In general, because of externalities, the answer is no. While the private sector could over- or under-invest in safety, the government can use taxes or subsidies to correct private incentives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E50, G, G2, G21