Stephen S. Poloz - Latest

• November 9, 1994

  The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Stephen S. Poloz, David Rose, Robert Tetlow

  This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models

• The Causes of Unemployment in Canada: A Review of the Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 1994-11 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper reviews various competing theories of structural unemployment and considers whether they may be used to explain any of the rise in unemployment experienced by Canada during the most recent economic cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Labour markets