Q43 - Energy and the Macroeconomy

• The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption

  Staff Working Paper 2019-35 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger

  This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L7, L71, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais

  We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43

• A Structural Model of the Global Oil Market

  Staff Analytical Note 2019-17 Reinhard Ellwanger

  This note presents a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the global oil market. The model identifies four types of shocks with different economic interpretations: oil supply shocks, oil-market-specific demand shocks, storage demand shocks and shocks to global economic growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43