J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies

• Canada’s Beveridge curve and the outlook for the labour market

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-18 Alexander Lam

  Canada’s labour market is tight but beginning to ease. Unemployment will likely rise in turn, but the economy can avoid a recessionary surge given current conditions. Higher unemployment would nonetheless be material, especially for those directly impacted.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, J, J2, J20, J6, J63, J64

• Has wage setting changed in Canada? Evidence from the pre-pandemic 2020 Wage-Setting Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-10 David Amirault, Sarah Miller, Matthieu Verstraete

  Just before the pandemic began, the Bank of Canada conducted the 2020 Wage-Setting Survey. The goal was to explore the unusual trend of subdued wage growth in 2018 and 2019 despite a tightening in the labour market. Although this wage puzzle was beginning to resolve at the time of the survey, results highlight changes in several factors that may have important impacts on wage dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets JEL Code(s): J, J3, J31, J32, J33, J6, J63

• Benchmarks for assessing labour market health

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-2 Erik Ens, Corinne Luu, Kurt See, Shu Lin Wee

  We propose a range of benchmarks for assessing labour market strength for monetary policy. This work builds on a previous framework that considers how diverse and segmented the labour market is. We apply these benchmarks to the Canadian labour market and find that it has more than recovered from the COVID-19 shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J6