G - Financial Economics

• Is the stock market pricing in a V‑shaped recovery?

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-17 James Kyeong

  Major stock indexes have bounced back from their March 23 trough to about 10 percent below their peaks. However, stocks that are more sensitive to the business cycle have not performed as well during this market rally. This suggests that stock markets are pricing in a slower, shallower economic recovery.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G1, G12, G14

• Will exchange-traded funds shape the future of bond dealing?

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-16 Rohan Arora, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Corey Garriott, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc

  Bond dealers have traditionally kept bonds in an inventory until clients buy them. But now, dealers have another way to access bonds for their clients: the exchange-traded fund. We discuss this new way to manage bond dealing and what it might mean for bond markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23

• Ten Isn’t Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2020-30 Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker, Isabelle Salle

  Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, D9, D90, G, G2, G20

• Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2020-29 Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl, Milena Wittwer

  The main objectives of debt management are to raise stable and low-cost funding to meet the government’s financial needs and to maintain a well-functioning market for government securities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D4, D44, E, E5, E58, G, G1, G12

• Why Fixed Costs Matter for Proof-of-Work Based Cryptocurrencies

  Staff Working Paper 2020-27 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt

  Can Bitcoin survive? Some say it will become vulnerable to attacks as the rewards for processing Bitcoin transactions continue to decline. The economics of fixed costs suggest the specialized hardware used to mine Bitcoin may be key to its survival.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, L, L1, L11

• The potential effect of a central bank digital currency on deposit funding in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2020-15 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Xuezhi Liu, Joshua Slive

  A retail central bank digital currency denominated in Canadian dollars could, in theory, create competition for bank deposit funding.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E44, E5, G, G1, G10, G17, G2, G21, G3, G32, O