G - Financial Economics

• Central Bank Communication or the Media’s Interpretation: What Moves Markets?

  Staff Working Paper 2012-9 Scott Hendry

  The goal of this paper is to investigate what type of information from Bank of Canada communication statements or the market commentary based on these statements has a significant effect on the volatility or level of returns in a short-term interest rate market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14
• February 23, 2012

  Household Insolvency in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Jason Allen, H. Evren Damar

  With increasing levels of household debt in recent years, the number of households that may be vulnerable to a negative economic shock is rising as well. Decisions made by both the debtor and the creditor can contribute to insolvency. This article presents some stylized facts about insolvency in Canada’s household sector and analyzes the role of creditors in insolvencies. The average debt of an individual filing for bankruptcy is more than 1.5 times that of an average Canadian household; bankruptcy filers tend to be unemployed or in low-wage jobs, and are typically renters. The article reports that banks that approve more loans per branch, which is interpreted as less-intensive use of soft information (such as the loan officer’s assessment of the applicant’s character), experience more client bankruptcies. This finding has important policy implications, because financial institutions that do not use soft information risk further deterioration in their lending portfolios.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2

• An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks

  Staff Working Paper 2012-5 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Price Competition and Concentration in Search and Negotiation Markets: Evidence from Mortgage Lending

  Staff Working Paper 2012-4 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde

  This paper examines the impact of bank consolidation on mortgage rates in order to evaluate the extent to which mortgage markets are competitive. Mortgage markets are decentralized and so rates are determined through a search and negotiation process.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Interest rates JEL Code(s): G, G2, L, L1