E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

• The U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate: A New Estimation Approach

  Staff Working Paper 1999-14 René Lalonde

  The recent strengh of the U.S. economy and historically low rates of inflation have sparked considerable debate among economists and Federal Reserve officials. In order to better explain the recent behaviour of inflation, some observers have raised the concept of a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilization rate (NAICU). In this study, the author presents a new […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37

• Indicator Models of Core Inflation for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1999-13 Richard Dion

  When there is uncertainty about estimates of the margin of unused capacity in the economy, examining a range of inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity prices, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

• Forecasting GDP Growth Using Artificial Neural Networks

  Staff Working Paper 1999-3 Greg Tkacz, Sarah Hu

  Financial and monetary variables have long been known to contain useful leading information regarding economic activity. In this paper, the authors wish to determine whether the forecasting performance of such variables can be improved using neural network models. The main findings are that, at the 1-quarter forecasting horizon, neural networks yield no significant forecast improvements. […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, E, E3, E37, E4, E44