E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• The Expectations Hypothesis for the Longer End of the Term Structure: Some Evidence for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1999-20 Ron Lange

  This paper assesses the expectations theory for the longer end of the term structure of Canadian interest rates using three empirical approaches that have received attention in the literature: (i) cointegration tests of the long-run unbiasedness hypothesis; (ii) simulations of a theoretical long-term yield that is consistent with the expectations hypothesis, and (iii) ex post […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43

• Optimal Currency Areas: A Review of the Recent Literature

  Staff Working Paper 1999-16 Robert Lafrance, Pierre St-Amant

  This paper surveys the recent literature on optimal currency areas (OCAs). Topics that are covered include theoretical developments in the context of general-equilibrium models and empirical work on shocks asymmetry and adjustment mechanisms. Issues relating to the endogeneity of OCA criteria, the role of exchange rate flexibility in promoting greater macroeconomic stability, and the links […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, F, F3, F33

• The U.S. Capacity Utilization Rate: A New Estimation Approach

  Staff Working Paper 1999-14 René Lalonde

  The recent strengh of the U.S. economy and historically low rates of inflation have sparked considerable debate among economists and Federal Reserve officials. In order to better explain the recent behaviour of inflation, some observers have raised the concept of a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilization rate (NAICU). In this study, the author presents a new […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37

• Indicator Models of Core Inflation for Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1999-13 Richard Dion

  When there is uncertainty about estimates of the margin of unused capacity in the economy, examining a range of inflation indicators may help in assessing the balance of risks regarding the outlook for inflation. This paper tests a wide range of observable variables for their leading-indicator properties with respect to core inflation, including: commodity prices, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

• Greater Transparency in Monetary Policy: Impact on Financial Markets

  Technical Report No. 86 Philippe Muller, Mark Zelmer

  Measures have been taken by the Bank of Canada to increase the transparency of Canadian monetary policy. This paper examines whether the greater transparency has improved financial markets' understanding of the conduct of monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G14

• Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets

  Staff Working Paper 1999-6 Ben Fung, Scott Mitnick, Eli Remolona

  Theory and empirical evidence suggest that the term structure of interest rates reflects risk premiums as well as market expectations about future inflation and real interest rates. We propose an approach to extracting such premiums and expectations by exploiting both the comovements among interest rates across the yield curve and between two countries, Canada and […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Inflation and prices, Interest rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G15

• Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes

  Staff Working Paper 1999-8 Robert Amano, Donald Coletti, Tiff Macklem

  This paper examines the implications of changes in economic behaviour for simple inflation-forecast–based monetary rules of the type currently used at two inflation-targeting central banks. Three types of changes in economic behaviour are considered, changes that are motivated by developments in monetary and fiscal policy in the 1990s: changes in monetary policy credibility, changes in […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 1999-5 David Laidler

  The relationships among the quantity theory of money, monetarism and policy regimes based on money-growth and inflation targeting are briefly discussed as a prelude to an exposition of alternative views of money's role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The passive-money view treats the money supply as an endogenous variable that plays no role […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E51, E52

• Inflation Targeting under Uncertainty

  Technical Report No. 85 Gabriel Srour

  This paper studies the implications of certain kinds of uncertainty for monetary policy. It first describes the optimum policy rule in a simple model of the transmission mechanism as in Ball and Svensson.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• The Exchange Rate Regime and Canada's Monetary Order

  Staff Working Paper 1999-7 David Laidler

  It is a mistake to debate the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes for Canada independently of other features of the monetary order. A coherent order requires a well-defined goal for monetary policy, one that the authorities are capable of achieving, and that anchors private sector expectations. For it to be liberal, the relevant authorities […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F3, F31