E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Can a Matching Model Explain the Long-Run Increase in Canada's Unemployment Rate?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-19 Andreas Hornstein, Mingwei Yuan

  The authors construct a simple general equilibrium model of unemployment and calibrate it to the Canadian economy. Job creation and destruction are endogenous. In this model, they consider several potential factors that could contribute to the long-run increase in the Canadian unempoloyment rate: a more generous unemployment insurance system, higher layoff costs, higher discretionary taxes, […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E6, J, J4

• La politique monétaire a-t-elle des effets asymétriques sur l'emploi?

  Staff Working Paper 1998-17 Lise Pichette

  Several economists, including Cover (1992), Ammer and Brunner (1995), Macklem, Paquet, and Phaneuf (1996), have worked over the past few years to determine whether monetary policy shocks have asymmetric effects on output. These authors have generally found that negative monetary shocks tend to reduce output growth significantly, and that positive shocks generally have a weaker […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5

• Consumer Attitudes, Uncertainty, and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 1998-16 Denise Côté, Marianne Johnson

  This study examines the link between consumer expenditures and the Conference Board's Index of Consumer Attitudes, an index highly regarded for some time as a useful leading indicator of consumer expenditures. However, the theory that identifies why it may be useful in an analysis of consumption is less well established. To explore this question, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2

• On the Believable Benefits of Low Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 1998-15 Christopher Ragan

  This paper reviews the existing theoretical and empirical literature addressing the benefits of low inflation. The ultimate goal is to arrive at a set of benefits in which a monetary authority can have genuine confidence. I argue that the current state of economic research—both empirical and theoretical—provides little basis for believing in significant observable benefits […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31

• Un examen de la crédibilité de la politique monétaire au Canada

  Staff Working Paper 1998-12 Patrick Perrier

  In this study, the author uses survey data on inflationary expectations to obtain information about the credibility of Canada's monetary policy. By comparing the differences between the forecasts made by survey participants with the targets set by the Bank of Canada for the 1992-1996 period (the period covered by the study), it was possible to […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52

• Liquidity Effects and Market Frictions

  Staff Working Paper 1998-11 Scott Hendry, Guang-Jia Zhang

  The goal of this paper is to shed light on the nature of the monetary transmission mechanism. Specifically, we attempt to tackle two problems in standard limited-participation models: (1) the interest rate liquidity effect is not as persistent as in the data; and (2) some nominal variables are unrealistically volatile. To address these problems, we […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5

• Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism

  Staff Working Paper 1998-7 Walter Engert, Jack Selody

  An important challenge facing central banks is making decisions under uncertainty about the dynamic effects of monetary policy actions. The authors stress the importance of explicitly recognizing uncertainty about the transmission mechanism when formulating policy advice. They argue that one way to manage monetary policy under uncertainty is to draw on both an output-gap paradigm […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5

• Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two

  Staff Working Paper 1998-6 Walter Engert, Scott Hendry

  A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by Hendry […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): C, C3, C5, E, E3, E4, E5

• Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach

  Staff Working Paper 1998-5 Joseph Atta-Mensah, Greg Tkacz

  This paper examines the ability of a number of financial variables to predict Canadian recessions. Regarding methodology, we follow closely the technique employed by Estrella and Mishkin (1998), who use a probit model to predict U.S. recessions up to eight quarters in advance. Our main finding is that the spread between the yield on Canadian […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E43

• The Benefits of Low Inflation: Taking Stock

  Technical Report No. 83 Brian O'Reilly

  This paper surveys the empirical literature on the benefits of low inflation, emphasizing contributions since 1990. It follows the framework of a section in the Bank's 1990 Annual Report, "The benefits of price stability."

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E3