E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle

  We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37

• What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin

  We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31

• Supply Drivers of US Inflation Since the COVID-19 Pandemic

  Staff Working Paper 2023-19 Serdar Kabaca, Kerem Tuzcuoglu

  This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31, E32

• Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2023-18 Carola Conces Binder, Rodrigo Sekkel

  We review the literature on central bank forecasting with a special focus on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E47, E5, E52, E58

• A Review of the Bank of Canada’s Market Operations Related to COVID-19

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-6 Grahame Johnson

  This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, E, E4, E41, E5, G, G0, G01, G1, G14, G2, G21, G23, H, H1, H12

• Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

  Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee

  We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E3, E30, E32