E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

  Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin

  This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, F, F3, F31, F4, F47

• Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2003-2 Kim McPhail

  Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Money in the Bank (of Canada)

  Technical Report No. 93 David Longworth

  With the demise of monetary targeting over the past 20 years in many major countries, the question has arisen as to whether central banks should look at money at all when formulating and conducting monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E51, E52