E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators

  Staff Working Paper 2022-5 Shang-Jin Wei, Yinxi Xie

  We find that the CPI and PPI inflation indexes co-moved strongly throughout the late 20th century, but their correlation has fallen substantially since the early 2000s. We offer a structural explanation for this divergence based on the growth of global supply chains since 2000. This finding offers a unique perspective for the future design of optimal monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F11, F12, F4, F41, F6, F62

• The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

  Staff Working Paper 2022-4 Sushant Acharya, Keshav Dogra, Sanjay Singh

  We explore the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk to the rest of the economy. We also consider whether policy can be used to reduce this risk—either by increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets or by reducing the demand for safe assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D5, D52, D8, D84, E, E6, E62, G, G1, G10, G12

• Transition Scenarios for Analyzing Climate-Related Financial Risk

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-1 Y.-H. Henry Chen, Erik Ens, Olivier Gervais, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Serdar Kabaca, Miguel Molico, Sergey Paltsev, Alex Proulx, Argyn Toktamyssov

  Climate transition scenarios clarify climate-related risks to our economy and financial system. This paper summarizes key results of Canada-relevant scenarios developed in a pilot project on climate risk by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial stability, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C68, D, D5, D58, E, E5, E50, O, O4, O44, P, P1, P18, Q, Q5, Q54

• Firm Inattention and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy: A Text-Based Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2022-3 Wenting Song, Samuel Stern

  How much attention do firms pay to macroeconomic news? Through a novel text-based measure, two facts emerge. First, attention is polarized. Most firms either never or always pay attention to economic conditions. Second, it is countercyclical. During recessions, more firms pay attention, and firms pay greater attention to macroeconomic news.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• What Drives Bitcoin Fees? Using Segwit to Assess Bitcoin's Long-Run Sustainability

  Staff Working Paper 2022-2 Colin Brown, Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl

  We explore what drives transaction fees in the Bitcoin system and consider whether Bitcoin can remain tamper proof in the long run.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2

• Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places

  Staff Working Paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd

  The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32